Can data can help solve plant-based paradox?

We need to diversify the proteins we eat. In simple terms this means more plants and less (and better) meat. This would bring environmental, social and health benefits. That is what the science is telling us – and has been telling us for years. And yet, we seem to be stuck. “It feels like we are having the same discussions over and over again,” explains the head of sustainability at a major foodservice company.

Indeed, just as plants – and in particular plant-based alternatives – began to gain a foothold in the retail market, sales slipped and scrutiny intensified. There were reports that the ‘vegan bubble had burst’ and that plant-based foods were ‘letting consumers down’. This didn’t translate to foodservice, as Footprint has reported, yet as the number of products available has grown so too have concerns about whether highly processed plants were really a ‘better’ option.

“Alternative proteins have potential, [but] they aren’t a free pass,” explains Gina Camfied, head of ESG at Aramark UK and global offshore. “Many highly processed plant-based meats aren’t healthier for consumers, and the environmental benefits aren’t as clear-cut as some would like to believe. We have to be vigilant and transparent about the environmental and health trade-offs,” she adds.

Data, as ever, will be key.

Plants push

The spotlight on plant-based alternatives currently is intense. However, it’s worth recognising that this didn’t spring up overnight, and that our understanding of the impact of ultra-processed foods, for example, is still being developed.

“… it will be important to remain vigilant to ensure that these new products are beneficial to human health as well as the health of the planet,” wrote Frank Hu, professor of nutrition and epidemiology at Harvard TH Chan school of public health, in an opinion paper for the American Medical Association in October 2019. “… there is no evidence that [plant-based meat alternatives] can substitute for healthy diets focused on minimally processed plant foods.”

Around that time, market research companies also began to highlight concerns that consumers were beginning to have about the long lists of ingredients – some of them unknown to the layman – that manufacturers needed in order to make their mock meats. This was an issue that was not going away, noted Just-Food. “We are not pushing the [health] agenda,” one startup brand told the website. “Our focus is on taste and texture first. We want to bust the myths that these products are all chickpeas and terrible.”

The big players in the emerging sector appeared to laugh off such criticism, arguing that their products should be compared with beef, say, rather than broccoli. “The meat eater has desperately wanted something better than meat but has been starved for it for the past several years,” David Lee, chief financial officer at Impossible Foods at the time, told McKinsey in an interview in 2019. “What’s new is that there are companies like ours that now offer something ‘craveable’ and delicious for meat eaters like me, without those compromises that we’re in denial about – like the impact to our health or the impact on the environment.”

Such claims have remained in the spotlight. Investors worry about the category, with questions being asked of the nutritional profile of the products, as well as the impacts on biodiversity and climate of producing these products at scale. In a 2023 update, market research firm Mintel noted that alternative products “can often have long ingredient lists or be considered more processed than animal products. In order to elevate appeal for meat and dairy alternatives, characteristics associated with naturalness must be emphasised more strongly.” They are also under increasing threat from a range of other alternatives to meat and dairy, the analysts warned, with lab-grown options in particular claiming to be “healthier, more ethical and sustainable options”.

Experts at the Good Food Institute (GFI) and Foodsteps suggest it is too simplistic to consider a long ingredients list as inherently bad. The nuance can be confusing for consumers too: academic research has begun to show an emerging conflict between health and sustainability attributes of plant-based alternatives. Consumers “face much incertitude when it comes to replacing meat” noted experts in a study in Norway and France published in the journal Appetite in 2022.

A more recent survey of 1,000 UK consumers by Bryant Research, ProVeg International and Plant Futures, showed 49% were worried that plant-based options are not natural or too processed. The fact that health benefits were the number one reason for choosing meat alternatives (39%) shows just how important it will be for plant-based proteins to “win the argument on health”, wrote the authors of an accompanying report. “While nutritional concerns, and related concerns about the healthiness of processed foods, are held by some, healthiness is also regarded as a benefit of PBMs by those who consume them,” they noted. Efforts must continue to “deconstruct the narrative that processed foods are necessarily unhealthy, and continue to promote the benefits of plant-based meats in terms of reduced calorie density, reduced saturated fat, reduced cholesterol, and increased fibre”.

Nutritional nuance

Joanna Trewern is director of partnerships and institutional engagement at advocacy organisation ProVeg International. “Food processing has been an integral part of human diets for millennia and plays a crucial role in providing safe and convenient food options,” she says. “The degree of processing alone cannot be used to make a reliable statement about the health value of food.”

Whole-wheat bread for example, which is commonly seen as a healthy, ‘natural’ food, belongs to the processed/ultra-processed categories that nowadays are mostly considered negative. Trewern says food manufacturers must continue to invest in product development and reformulation to ensure products meet high standards regarding nutrition and environment; however, much of the criticism levied at these alternative products is not fair because comparisons are with healthy wholefoods rather than the meat and dairy products they are intended to replace. “Plant-based meat alternatives can play an important role in enabling individuals to reduce their meat consumption, and have a lower environmental impact than their animal-based counterparts,” she adds.

Clean labels, fewer ingredients and greater supply chain transparency are all going to be crucial for so-called ‘better’ plant-based products. But how quickly can they be used to bust the current narrative that all plant-based is processed and all plant-based is therefore bad?

Research published in the summer by the Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) noted that: “In terms of reactions to food and drink advertising, nutritional claims or terminology could provoke challenge, whereas environmental claims and terminology tended to be accepted at face value, generating little discussion, unless seen as overly ‘preachy’ in tone.”

The paradox here, however, is that there is a greater focus on nutritional claims in ads as they can be “more relatable and relevant to individuals”, the ASA noted. And such claims “could become polarised when used to promote the benefits of a plant-based diet. Those with meat-inclusive diets often questioned the validity of a health-based claim regarding plant-based foods, arguing that such a diet cannot provide a nutritiously balanced lifestyle, and some understood that many plant-based meat replacements would be processed or ultra-processed, carrying negative health connotations.”

Those in the meat-alts space are conscious of the challenge facing them. “If, as a category, we cannot make improvements to our ingredients list, we will continue to have a perception that our products are highly processed, and therefore less healthy than meat,” Emily Giles, UK head of sales at vegan bacon-maker La Vie, told The Grocer in August. And addressing this issue will be key to “phase 2.0 of growth”, she added.

It’s worth noting that recent marketing activity by La Vie pushes the following message: “High in protein with 19.5g per 100g and only 7 ingredients, our plant-based ham brings you everything you love about pork, without the pig! Better for you, better for the planet and better for the animal.”

Such claims, of course, need to be evidenced in more detail than ever – regulators like the Competition and Markets Authority and the ASA are clamping down on claims considered to be too vague or that draw unfair comparisons. “It’s really good business to promote any green practices – especially these days – but it’s really important to get it right,” explained Alasdair Dalzel-Job during September’s Climate Smart Food Digital Summit.

Oatly and Tesco are among the brands that have fallen foul of ASA rules in recent years as the food sector continues to be drowned in accusations of greenwashing. Data can help shore up such claims. “Alternative proteins could help dramatically decarbonise our food system,” says Foodsteps CEO Anya Doherty, yet manufacturers currently lack access to data to understand and communicate the ‘green impact’ of their products to investors, retailers, and consumers.”

Safety in numbers

Foodsteps, UK-based experts in measuring and mitigating food-related emissions, has partnered with the GFI to launch of a new tool designed to help alt-protein companies assess their carbon footprint and make verified marketing claims. The tool has been developed with input from over 30 manufacturers, including Quorn and Tofoo, to help “cover the data gaps”, according to Tom Chapman, a sustainability consultant working for the GFI. It also reduces costs and time and improves the accuracy of the carbon footprints for plant-based products. The more information they add to the platform, the more accurate and valuable it becomes for those looking to assess plant-based proteins, and then use that information to reduce scope 3 emissions and meet their net-zero targets.

“Driven by rising consumer demand, alternative proteins could help dramatically decarbonise our food system,” says Foodsteps director Anya Doherty. “Yet manufacturers currently lack access to data to understand and communicate the ‘green impact’ of their products to investors, retailers, and consumers. Our intention behind this partnership is to help alt-protein companies to remove any hurdles so that the category can continue to grow and lower impact at scale,” she adds.

This kind of collaborative approach to data collection and communication goes wider than just carbon: there is now an industry-wide initiative to help spread the facts on plant-based foods. “From fresh produce to wholefoods through to the diverse range of proteins and fibre this category has to offer, we are at the beginning of something truly exciting,” says Indy Kaur, founder of consultancy Plant Futures.

Earlier this year, Kaur helped to bring together over 40 leading plant-based protein businesses, retailers, and NGOs for the inaugural plant-based proteins workshop. The get-together was convened to address the recent downturn in the category and look at ways to rejuvenate it. The second workshop, with increased engagement from businesses like Oatly, Upfield and Impossible Foods, involved conversations related to the narrative that portrays all plant-based alternatives as ultra-processed and therefore bad, as well as how to use foodservice to provide “the best first experience” of products.

“Out-of-home represents a significant channel for food purchasing and consumption, and public catering can play an important role in improving supply chain sustainability and consumer health,” says Trewern at ProVeg International, which has been involved in the workshops. Some 57% of Europeans would like to see more plant-based meals available in schools, hospitals, and at public events, she says, adding: “Public catering can redefine norms and deliver benefits for supply chain sustainability and consumer health.”

Public sector caterers note their role in shifting towards more sustainable – low impact and healthier and fairer – diets. “We are gatekeepers of what’s going to drive mainstream adoption of healthy, low impact meals”, says Camfield at Aramark, but “we can’t ignore the complexity of the transition”, she adds.

Beans boost

Camfield is encouraged by the attention on meat alternatives – “it’s a good thing” – and believes it can help push the boundaries of choice, education and variety; for all plant-forward options, not just the processed alternatives.

An analysis published last month by the Food Foundation split plant-based meats into three different subcategories: processed (new generation) that includes products such as Beyond Meat, THIS branded products and Quorn; processed (traditional), consisting of products such as tofu, tempeh and seitan; and so-called ‘less processed’ or ‘whole foods’ like beans, pulses and grains. The vast majority of plant-based meat alternatives perform better on environmental indicators, with significantly reduced greenhouse gas emissions and water footprints compared to meat.

However, the findings on nutrition were far more nuanced. There was not evidence that the nutritional profile of plant-based meat alternatives is on average notably worse than for meat products, yet all of the products in the processed (new generation) category would be classified as ultra-processed under the NOVA classification (category 4) and even the traditional processed foods were evenly split between NOVA groups 3 (processed foods) and 4. On fibre, the most processed plant alternatives had the edge albeit they also contained higher levels of salt than meat equivalents.  

Despite some negative press, processed plant-based meat alternatives can be a “useful stepping stone” for encouraging people to shift their diets, albeit less processed alternatives like beans, pulses and grains offer the greatest number of co-benefits, the authors noted. “There is a huge opportunity in the UK to get people eating more beans, as an affordable, healthy and sustainable alternative protein source, explains Rebecca Tobi, senior business and investor engagement manager at the Food Foundation.

It’s worth noting that the debate on the pros and cons of the Nova classification is ongoing. Concerns surrounding alternative meats as too processed persist too. However, encouraging consumers en masse to leap from beef to beans is unlikely. As Jenny Chapman, from the Churchill Fellowship wrote in a report covering the discourse over plant-based meat, the ultra-processed worries about plant-based alternatives could “derail” climate, biodiversity and health goals and “discourage” consumers.

For Chapman, it’s crucial that nuance is communicated, while foods and diets that are healthier and more sustainable “should be promoted, irrespective of their degree of processing”. In addition to continuing to promote a fresh whole-foods diet, it must be recognised that plant- based meat plays a critical role in enabling people to eat healthier and more sustainable diets, she writes, adding: “Like-for-like swaps, such as substituting beef mince for soy mince, do not require significant changes to purchasing, cooking or eating habits and are thus a tractable solution to population-scale improvements in the nutrition and sustainability of diets.”

Omni-options

Some 43% of consumers plan to buy and eat more plant-based products, and success will be there for those who deliver great tasting, great value, nutritious products, according to ProVeg. Legumes present a particular opportunity for product developers and brands, with 57% of European consumers eating them at least once a week.

Omnivores make up 36% of the UK population, with flexitarians (who are almost vegetarian but occasionally eat meat and fish) accounting for another 34%. But 30% are also ‘open-omnivores’. This is a new term – coined by Kaur – for those who are open to plant-based meats but haven’t tried them yet. “They‘re the future flexitarians, and it’s a sizeable group of the UK population,” Kaur told FoodNavigator. They are also reportedly growing in number.

Shifting diets will take inspiration, investment and innovation. Processed plant-based alternatives will be part of that, but time – and data – will tell how big their slice of the meat-free pie will be.

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